Navigating Nigeria’s commodities market: A guide to investors and new traders

For years, Nigeria has emerged as a prominent player in the global financial markets. Especially within commodities trading has Nigeria risen as a major entity, due to a diverse range of commodities such as oil, agricultural products, and metals.

For Nigerians wanting to enter this dynamic trading field, it is important to understand the market dynamics and key trading concepts.

There are various tools which investors and new traders can apply to enhance the technical analysis for a more robust decision-making process when trading with commodities. 

An introduction to commodities trading

When someone refers to commodities trading they are referring to buying and selling raw materials or primary agricultural products. Commodities for trading are commonly categorized into two main types: hard and soft.

Hard commodities are natural resources including gold, oil, and metals. Nigeria is one of the largest oil producers in Africa, which means the country has a high stake in the trading of crude oil.

Soft commodities are agricultural products including cocoa, maize, and coffee. Being a major exporter of cocoa and other agricultural products, Nigeria have a variety of soft commodities as part of its trading portfolio. 

There are many forms of commodities trading, and each has unique features and its own risk when applied. One form is spot trading, which involves buying and selling commodities for immediate delivery.

This form of trading is very straightforward and simple, but it does not always align with the trader’s financial goals or market expectations. Futures contracts are another form, which are agreements to buy or sell a commodity at a predetermined price on a set future date.

What this form of trading allows is for traders to hedge against price fluctuations and inflation. Options is yet another form of trading, which provide the right to buy or sell a commodity at a specified price before a set date.

Many traders prefer this flexibility as it can be advantageous, but it does also entail a good understanding of market conditions. 

A key technical analysis tool to apply

A popular tool among traders when it comes to technical analysis is the stochastic oscillator which can be leveraged to understand the momentum of a commodity’s price.

The oscillator was developed by George Lane in the 1950s can help traders identify potential overbought or oversold conditions. This can be an indicator for traders to buy or sell. 

The foundation of the stochastic oscillator is the principle that when commodities prices move, they tend to close near their highs during uptrends, and they close near their lows during downtrends.

The stochastic oscillator generates value by comparing a commodity’s closing price to its price range over a set period. The generated values can be leveraged by traders to predict future price movements. 

Technical explanation of the stochastic oscillator

When trying to grasp the technicalities of the stochastic oscillator, you should think of two lines. The %K line represents the current closing price relative to the range of prices over a specific period.

The %D line is a moving average of the %K line, which provides a smoother version of the data, which signals the potential buying or selling opportunities. 

Both lines oscillate between 0 and 100. A general rule of thumb to apply is that reading above 80 indicates a commodity has been overbought, and reading below 20 indicates that a commodity has been oversold.

Using these levels, traders can make decisions about whether they should enter or exit trades. 

What to use the stochastic oscillator for in commodities trading

There are mainly three key uses of the stochastic oscillator in commodities trading. The first one is to identify overbought and oversold conditions. When analyzing the oscillator readings, it is possible for traders to identify potential reversal points in the market. One example is if the %K line crosses above the %D line while both are in the overbought zone, then it can be analyzed as an indicator to sell. 

The second use is to spot divergences. By looking at divergences between the stochastic oscillator and the commodity’s price, this can indicate potential trend reversals.

For example, an indicator for a weakening trend could be if the price is making new highs but the oscillator is not.

The third use is to combine the stochastic oscillator with other indicators. It is often used in conjunction with other indicators to confirm signals and improve the accuracy of the analysis. It can be used in conjunction with, for example, moving averages or trend lines. 

Concluding remarks

When new traders and practiced investors wants to enter the Nigerian commodities trading market, it is both important to know the basics of how commodities trading works, and also mastering tools for technical analysis such as the stochastic oscillator.

Such knowledge will provide a competitive edge to trading activities, which is much needed in the light of the projected continuation of Nigeria’s impact on the global financial markets.