In 2025, while many countries are battling overcrowding, a growing number of countries are quietly shrinking in terms of population.
Driven by low fertility rates, ageing populations, and high emigration, the population decline in countries like Saint Martin, the Cook Islands, and the Marshall Islands is raising alarm bells.
This report explores the top 10 countries facing rapid depopulation and what it means for their future stability.
Saint Martin
Saint Martin, a French overseas collectivity in the Caribbean, is facing one of the fastest population declines in the world, with its population estimated at around 25,000 as of early 2025, a sharp drop of about 4.5% annually. The decline, which began after Hurricane Irma devastated the island in 2017, is driven mainly by negative net migration, as more than 1,200 people, mostly young adults, leave each year in search of better opportunities. At the same time, birth rates are falling, the median age has risen to 42, and fewer young families are staying to contribute to the economy. This demographic shift is already affecting the island’s workforce, economy, and public services, with vacant homes and underused facilities signalling deeper challenges ahead. Without urgent measures to attract investment, create jobs, and retain residents, Saint Martin risks long-term social and economic instability.
Cook Islands
The Cook Islands, a small Pacific island nation and New Zealand territory, is experiencing one of the fastest population declines in the world, with its population dropping to around 17,000 as of 2025. This sharp decrease is largely due to high emigration rates, as citizens—especially young people—leave for better job opportunities, education, and healthcare in New Zealand and Australia, where they hold full citizenship. The situation is worsened by low birth rates, an ageing population, and the depopulation of many outer islands, with most residents relocating to the capital, Rarotonga, or moving abroad entirely. The government has responded by trying to attract returnees, improve infrastructure, and strengthen the economy through tourism and investment, but these efforts struggle to compete with the advantages offered overseas. As a result, the Cook Islands now face serious challenges related to workforce shortages, cultural preservation, and long-term sustainability.
Marshall Islands
The Marshall Islands, a small Pacific island nation, is facing a significant population decline in 2025, with its population dropping to around 41,500 from over 53,000 in previous decades, placing it among the top 10 countries with shrinking populations. This decline is largely due to mass migration to the United States under the Compact of Free Association (COFA), as citizens seek better opportunities, healthcare, and education in states like Arkansas and Hawaii. Economic hardship, limited infrastructure, and worsening climate conditions such as rising sea levels, frequent flooding, and freshwater scarcity are key drivers of this exodus. As more young and skilled individuals leave, the country is dealing with labour shortages, brain drain, and growing dependency on international aid. Without urgent action to improve living conditions and address climate threats, the population is expected to continue declining, posing serious risks to the nation’s long-term survival.
Greece
Greece is experiencing a sharp population decline, with numbers falling to 10.1 million in 2025 from over 11 million, driven by low birth rates, an ageing population, and youth emigration following the 2009 financial crisis. The country now faces more deaths than births each year, while many rural areas are becoming depopulated. Despite government efforts like family incentives and returnee campaigns, the impact has been limited. Experts warn that if the trend continues, Greece’s population could fall below 9 million by 2050, threatening its workforce, economy, and long-term stability.
Northern Mariana Islands
The Northern Mariana Islands, a U.S. commonwealth in the Pacific, is among the top 10 countries with declining populations. As of 2025, its population is estimated at around 47,000, a significant decrease driven by outmigration, low birth rates, and economic challenges. Many residents have left the islands in search of better job opportunities in the mainland United States, especially after the decline of the garment industry and the devastation caused by typhoons in recent years. The shrinking population has raised concerns about labour shortages, economic sustainability, and the future of public services in the territory.
Tuvalu
Tuvalu, a small island nation in the Pacific Ocean, is facing a steady population decline, placing it among the top 10 countries with shrinking populations. With an estimated population of just over 11,000 in 2025, the country has seen increasing emigration due to limited economic opportunities, rising sea levels, and concerns over climate change. Many Tuvaluans are relocating to countries like New Zealand and Australia under special migration programs, seeking better living conditions and job prospects. The declining population poses serious challenges for Tuvalu’s local economy, cultural preservation, and long-term national viability as climate threats continue to loom.
American Samoa
American Samoa, an unincorporated territory of the United States in the South Pacific, ranks among the top 10 countries with declining populations. As of 2025, its population is estimated at around 45,000, continuing a downward trend driven by high emigration rates, especially among youth seeking education, employment, and better healthcare in the U.S. mainland. The territory also struggles with low birth rates and limited economic growth, leading many families to leave in search of improved opportunities. This ongoing population decline raises concerns about workforce shortages, reduced economic activity, and challenges in maintaining public infrastructure and cultural traditions.
Moldova
Moldova, a landlocked country in Eastern Europe, is one of the top 10 nations with the fastest-declining populations. As of 2025, its population has dropped to around 2.4 million, significantly lower than in past decades. This sharp decline is largely due to mass emigration, as millions of Moldovans have left for better economic opportunities in countries likeRomania, Italy, and Germany. Combined with a low birth rate and an ageing population, the country faces a demographic crisis that threatens its labuor force, economic growth, and social services. Moldova’s shrinking population is a major concern for its future development and national stability.
Czech Republic
The Czech Republic, despite its strong economy and central location in Europe, is experiencing a gradual population decline, placing it among the top 10 countries facing this trend. As of 2025, the population is estimated at around 10.5 million, with projections showing a steady decrease in the coming years. This decline is primarily driven by a persistently low birth rate and an ageing population, as younger generations delay starting families or have fewer children. Although immigration has helped offset losses in the past, it is no longer sufficient to maintain long-term population growth. The demographic shift poses challenges for the country’s pension system, healthcare services, and labour market sustainability.
Estonia
Estonia, a Baltic nation in Northern Europe, ranks among the top 10 countries with a declining population. As of 2025, its population is estimated at around 1.3 million, a result of low birth rates, an ageing population, and years of emigration, especially following its independence from the Soviet Union. While recent efforts to attract skilled immigrants and support families have seen some success, the overall trend remains downward. The shrinking population raises concerns about future labour shortages, rural depopulation, and strain on the welfare and healthcare systems. Estonia’s government continues to explore policy solutions to reverse or slow this demographic decline.
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