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Cheta Nwanze: Donald Trump and Global Geopolitics
Donald Trump’s inauguration for his second presidential term has sparked concerns globally,
particularly in Africa. Although his speech didn’t directly address African countries, his
policies may have profound implications. Here are some implications for key African
countries.
Impact on World Peace
Trump’s decisions to broker a ceasefire in Gaza and resume high-level contacts with Russia
may reduce tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine. For Nigeria, a reduction in Middle East
tensions could lead to increased stability in neighbouring countries, potentially reducing the
influence of extremist groups like Boko Haram. As a key player in Middle East politics, Egypt
may see improved relations with the US and increased cooperation on counter-terrorism
efforts. As Africa’s leading economy, South Africa may benefit from increased stability in
global markets and trade.
Global Geopolitics
Trump’s threat to reclaim the Panama Canal could lead to a major diplomatic crisis, straining US-Panama relations and potentially sparking tensions with other Latin American countries.
Nigeria, which relies heavily on manufactured goods from other countries, could face
disruptions in its supply chains and increased costs due to potential trade tensions. South
Africa could also face disruptions in its supply chains and increased costs due to potential
trade tensions. Due to geopolitics’ vengeful return, Morocco may need to navigate complex
relationships with the US, Europe, and other African nations. As a growing economy, Kenya
may face increased competition due to US trade policies, which could impact its agricultural
and manufacturing sectors.
Energy and Environment
Trump’s decision to halt efforts to reduce US greenhouse gas emissions and his “Drill, baby,
drill” mantra may increase US oil production, affecting global oil prices and potentially
destabilising economies reliant on oil exports. Nigeria’s economy relies heavily on oil
exports, and potentially lower global oil prices could pose significant challenges. As Africa’s
second-largest oil producer, Angola may also face reduced government revenues and
increased economic instability. Reduced global demand and lower prices could impact
Ghana’s emerging oil industry.
Climate Change
Trump’s retreat from the Paris Agreement could be catastrophic for African countries, which
are highly vulnerable to climate-related risks. Nigeria, which is already experiencing the
impacts of climate change, including increased flooding and droughts, could face even
greater challenges in adapting to a changing climate without the support of global
agreements like the Paris Agreement. Ethiopia is one of the countries most vulnerable to
climate change, and it may experience increased droughts, floods, and food insecurity.
Malawi’s agriculture sector, which employs most of the population, may be severely
impacted by climate-related shocks. Somalia’s fragile state and lack of infrastructure make it
highly vulnerable to climate-related disasters, giving strength to groups like Al-Shabab as
they are likely to see more recruits.
The World Health Organisation
Trump’s withdrawal from the World Health Organisation (WHO) could have far-reaching
consequences for African countries. One major concern is the potential disruption of global
health initiatives, including programmes to eradicate diseases like polio and measles.
African countries rely heavily on WHO support for their healthcare systems, and a
withdrawal of US funding could lead to significant gaps in funding for critical health
programmes. For instance, the WHO’s polio eradication programme, which has made
significant progress in recent years, could be severely impacted, putting millions of children
at risk of contracting the disease.
Furthermore, the withdrawal could also limit access to critical medicines and vaccines,
exacerbating existing health challenges in Africa. The WHO plays a vital role in coordinating
global responses to health crises, and without US participation, African countries may be left
vulnerable to emerging health threats.
The withdrawal could also have economic implications for African countries. Many African
countries rely on WHO support for their healthcare systems, and a reduction in funding could increase healthcare costs, which could have a ripple effect on the broader economy.
It’s worth noting that the withdrawal process is complex and may take up to a year to
complete. During this time, the US will continue to participate in WHO activities. However,
the long-term implications of the withdrawal remain a concern for African countries and the
global health community.
Opportunities for Africa
China’s commitment to the Paris Agreement and its expansion of clean energy infrastructure may help African countries transition to renewable energy sources and reduce their dependence on fossil fuels.
Nigeria, which has significant renewable energy potential, could benefit from Chinese
investment and expertise in developing its solar and wind energy resources. This would
reduce Nigeria’s reliance on oil and promote sustainable economic growth.
Egypt has already begun investing in renewable energy, and it plans to generate 20% of its
electricity from renewable sources by 2022. South Africa has set ambitious renewable
energy targets, aiming to generate 20% of its electricity from renewables by 2030. Morocco
has made significant investments in solar energy and plans to generate 50% of its electricity
from renewable sources by 2030.
Of Africa’s major economies, Nigeria is the last to take the renewable energy path. As with
so many things Nigerian, the drive for renewable energy is led haphazardly by the private
sector. There is an opportunity. Will we take it?
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Cheta Nwanze is founder at SBM Intelligence
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